Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.097720 0.109248 0.121207 0.134510 0.148863 0.163852 0.180658
2024-10-20 0.077770 0.094493 0.112877 0.134447 0.158924 0.185699 0.217061
2024-10-27 0.063981 0.083880 0.106917 0.135223 0.168721 0.206763 0.252877
2024-11-03 0.058377 0.081531 0.109497 0.145136 0.188701 0.239588 0.302850
2024-11-10 0.049708 0.074066 0.104763 0.145307 0.196427 0.257731 0.335734
2024-11-17 0.043660 0.069036 0.102269 0.147564 0.206216 0.278137 0.371432
2024-11-24 0.038020 0.063760 0.098757 0.147903 0.213145 0.294800 0.402587
2024-12-01 0.036013 0.063272 0.101430 0.156256 0.230411 0.324636 0.450619
2024-12-08 0.034259 0.062885 0.104058 0.164466 0.247556 0.354569 0.499277
2024-12-15 0.030616 0.059176 0.101575 0.165283 0.254593 0.371359 0.531240
2024-12-22 0.026353 0.053974 0.096436 0.161911 0.255576 0.379993 0.552584
2024-12-29 0.024975 0.053321 0.097985 0.168107 0.269819 0.406386 0.597499
2025-01-05 0.022880 0.051396 0.097688 0.171937 0.281407 0.430241 0.640642
2025-01-12 0.020731 0.049151 0.096750 0.174794 0.291780 0.452844 0.682845
2025-01-19 0.018676 0.046816 0.095466 0.177006 0.301241 0.474396 0.724092
2025-01-26 0.018697 0.048428 0.100788 0.189654 0.326308 0.518092 0.796167
2025-02-02 0.016632 0.045668 0.098487 0.190108 0.333251 0.536514 0.833972
2025-02-09 0.015169 0.043921 0.097762 0.192966 0.343771 0.560090 0.879169
2025-02-16 0.013520 0.041529 0.095677 0.193426 0.350554 0.578369 0.917213
2025-02-23 0.013326 0.042328 0.099403 0.203618 0.372491 0.618759 0.986698
2025-03-02 0.013109 0.043035 0.102962 0.213600 0.394270 0.659209 1.056744
2025-03-09 0.011838 0.041075 0.101328 0.214595 0.401885 0.679001 1.097672
2025-03-16 0.010147 0.037799 0.096896 0.210505 0.401264 0.686600 1.121284